下载原文：数字经济与绿色发展（后附翻译，SSCI一区论文）.pdf

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研发数字技术真的能够赋能绿色发展吗？

王磊 a，陈洋洋 a，Thomas StephenRamsey b，Geoffrey J.D.Hewings b

（a 三峡大学经济与管理学院，宜昌，443002）

（b 美国伊利诺伊大学香槟分校，厄巴纳–香槟，61801）

摘要：信息产业已经成为拉动世界经济增长的“新引擎”。然而，关于数字技术是否能降低碳排放强度存在诸多争议。基于 OECD 数据、KPWW 方法和多元面板回归，本文探讨了数字技术创新和技术溢出对本国碳排放强度的影响和机制。通过脉冲响应分析和方差分解，我们阐明了数字技术对碳排放强度的综合影响。本文结论显示：信息产业本产业技术创新会提高碳排放强度，而跨行业的技术溢出效应持续且显著降低本国碳排放强度。由于技术溢出的减排效应大于技术创新的排放效应，研发数字技术将赋能本国绿色发展。提高非化石能源利用比重、优化产业结构是数字技术创新降低碳排放强度的有效机制。

ABSTRACT:The information industry has become a “new engine” driving the growth of the world economy. However, there are many controversies about whether digital technology can reduce the intensity of carbon emissions. Based on OECD data, KPWW method and multiple panel regression, this paper explores the impact and mechanism of digital technology innovation and technology spillover to the domestic carbon emission intensity.  

Through impulse response analysis and variance decomposition,the comprehensive impact of digital technology on carbon intensity is clarified. This paper concludes that technology innovation in the information industry will increase the intensity of carbon emissions, while cross-industry technology spillovers are persistent for reducing the intensity of domestic carbon emissions. 

Since the emission reduction effect of technology spillover is greater than the emission increase effect of technology innovation, the digital technology would empower domestic green development. Increasing the proportion of non-fossil energy use and optimizing the industrial structure are effective mechanisms for digital technology innovation to reduce carbon emission intensity.

关键词：数字技术；技术溢出；碳排放强度

Keywords:Digital technology；Technology spillover；Carbon emission intensity

1 引言

信息产业1已成为数字经济时代驱动世界经济增长的“新引擎”，在全球经济发展议程中占据重要位置（UNCTAD，2019）。近年来，区块链技术、3D 打印技术、物联网、5G、云计算、自动化和机器人、人工智能和数据分析等前沿数字技术的研发和推广，使越来越多的价值链环节实现数字化连接。根据中国信息通信研究院（CAICT，2018）的数据，2017 年 G20 国家数字经济总量达到 26.17 万亿美元，比 2016 年增长 8.64%，显著领先于各国国内生产总值（GDP）同期增长率。信息产业的出现和普及通常被认为有利于社会和经济发展（Zhou et al. 2019）。

然而，关于信息产业发展对环境的影响尚未达成普遍共识。一些研究认为，信息产业将通过跨行业技术溢出来改善环境，包括从制造业向服务业的产业结构升级以及改变能源消费结构（Feuerriegel et al. 2016; Cecere et al. 2014; Daim et al. 2009）。

在中国信息产业高速发展时期，中国能源消费结构就得到显著优化（中国国务院新闻办公室，2020）。另一方面，世界信息产业本身的碳排放总量在达到峰值后稳定在 1.8 亿吨，并未随着信息产业的技术创新而减少（OECD，2019）。因此，一些学者在担心信息产业的制造、运营和物流带来负面环境效应，进而导致信息产业技术创新无法减少碳排放（Ercan et al. 2016, Belkhir & Elmeligi, 2018; Joyceet al. 2019）。要明确研发数字技术对环境的影响，需要探索信息产业技术创新导致碳排放增加的原因和降低碳排放的路径。

研究表明，通过技术溢出实现跨行业减排是信息产业节能减排的重要途径...

1. Introduction

The information industry1 has become a “new engine” driving the growth of the world economy in the information revolution era, occupying an important position in the global economic development agenda[1]. 

In recent years, the development and expansion of emerging digital technology such as blockchain technology, 3D printing technology,Internet of Things, 5G, cloud computing, automation and robotics,artificial intelligence and data analysis, has enabled more and more value chains to be digitally connected. According to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology [2], 

the total digital economy of the G20 countries reached $26.17 trillion in 2017, an increase of 8.64% from 2016, significantly ahead of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate over the same period. The emergence and popularization of information industry is commonly deemed societally and economically [3]. 

However, a general consensus has yet to be reached on the environmental impact of the development of the information industry. Some research argues that information industry would...